Daily Wrap-up - A Flat Close for the Dow Jones Industrial Average
3/10/2010 4:42 PM
permanent linkKeywords:
DJIA
SPX
The day ends with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) sitting within 3 points of Tuesday's close. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq Composite (COMP), and Russell 2000 (RUT) posted moderate gains. As shown below, the Dow suffered a minor midday setback but the selling ran its course quickly. The market spent the rest of the session drifting sideways.
Chart Courtesy of Thomson Reuters
| Index |
Index Value |
Point Change |
Percent Change |
| S&P 500 (SPX) |
1145.6 |
5.2 points |
0.45 percent |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) |
10567.3 |
3.0 points |
0.03 percent |
| Nasdaq Composite (COMP) |
2359.0 |
18.3 points |
0.78 percent |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) |
674.9 |
5.3 points |
0.79 percent |
| CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) |
18.57 |
0.65 points |
3.6 percent |
The Amex Biotech Index (BTK) and Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH) led while the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI) and streetTRACKS Gold (GLD) lagged.
My midday post noted that the S&P 500 was challenging resistance. That battle was put on hold until tomorrow so that is where I will pick up in the morning. Have a nice evening.
Charts Courtesy of Thomson Reuters
-posted by Nick Perry
3/10/2010 4:42 PM
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Mixx Spread Player Eyes Round-Number Resistance for Psychiatric Solutions, Inc.
3/10/2010 3:10 PM
permanent linkKeywords:
PSYS
Call volume has ballooned to 38 times the usual level today on Psychiatric Solutions, Inc. (PSYS), after The Wall Street Journal reported that Bain Capital is in talks to acquire the company. But, judging by a spread strategy that crossed the tape earlier today, at least one trader is expecting the shares to remain pinned at or below $30 during the near term.
Specifically, a long call spread was initiated earlier today at PSYS' April 25 and April 30 strikes. The speculator bought to open a block of 191 April 25 calls, while simultaneously selling to open a block of 191 April 30 calls.
In this strategy, the speculator attains the maximum potential profit if PSYS settles exactly at $30 upon April expiration. This will net the biggest possible gain on the April 25 call, while the April 30 call can be allowed to expire worthless.
If PSYS should rise above 30 prior to expiration, the trader can still pocket the difference between the two strikes, minus the initial net debit -- however, he'll likely incur additional brokerage costs in the process of closing out the short call. Of course, there's also the opportunity cost to consider, since the option player has effectively prevented himself from taking part in any additional upside beyond $30 per share.
After rocketing to a gain of nearly 19%, trading in PSYS was halted this afternoon. The shares tapped an intraday peak of $29.99 before the halt, stopping just short of the round-number $30 region. This level has capped PSYS' rally attempts since December 2008, which could explain why today's spread speculator decided to write a call at this strike.
-posted by Elizabeth Harrow
3/10/2010 3:10 PM
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Mixx Out-of-the-Money Puts Are Popular on Lennar Corporation
3/10/2010 1:57 PM
permanent linkKeywords:
LEN
Put volume has accelerated to more than three times the norm today on Lennar Corporation (LEN), with 9,767 of these bearishly oriented options changing hands so far. By contrast, LEN was expected to see put volume of just about 3,200 contracts today.
The day's most active strike is LEN's April 16 put, where 8,659 contracts have crossed the tape. About 87% of these out-of-the-money puts have traded at the ask price, indicating they were most likely purchased, and implied volatility on this option is up 2% at last check. With just 1,445 contracts currently in residence at the April 16 put, it seems safe to assume that speculators are adding new bearish bets here today.
This pessimistically slanted speculation is just more of the same for LEN. During the past 10 days, traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) have bought to open 1.51 puts for every call on the home builder. This ratio ranks higher than 79% of comparable readings taken during the previous year, confirming that option players have been purchasing puts over calls at a faster pace than usual in recent weeks.
In the same skeptical vein, LEN's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) stands at 1.30, with puts comfortably outnumbering calls among options set to expire within three months. This SOIR arrives in the 86th annual percentile, as short-term speculators have been more bearishly aligned only 14% of the time.
Outside the options arena, short sellers are also betting on a plunge, with a noteworthy12.9% of LEN's float dedicated to short interest.
With LEN up 35.4% in 2010, this bearish sentiment seems rather heavy-handed. The stock hasn't finished a single week below its 10-week and 20-week moving averages since early January, suggesting its year-to-date uptrend is still firmly intact. However, pessimistic players could be eyeing resistance from the $17.50 level, which previously rejected the stock back in September 2009.
-posted by Elizabeth Harrow
3/10/2010 1:57 PM
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Mixx Midday Market Check - The Dow Jones Industrial Average Dips Into Negative Territory
3/10/2010 12:20 PM
permanent linkKeywords:
DJIA
SPX
AMD
C
We head into the second half of the session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) slipping below the breakeven line. The loss is still minor at just 15 points, and the low-to-high range remains subdued at 55 points, but the action is still evolving. As they stand now, the S&P 500 (SPX) is holding a minor gain while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) and Russell 2000 (RUT) are slightly stronger.
Chart Courtesy of Thomson Reuters
Today's strongest groups are the Amex Biotech Index (BTK), Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH), and Regional Bank HOLDRS (RKH). The Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI), streetTRACKS Gold (GLD), and iShares Treasury Bond (TLT) are the weakest areas.
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE: AMD) are among the stocks seeing unusual option volume so far today.
Click image to see live data from
WhatsTrading.com in our Options Center
Yesterday morning I noted that Citigroup was testing the upper boundary of the recent trading range. The company then appeared on this morning's
unusual stock volume scan with a gain of 7%, which broke the range. We see some follow-through buying today as shares of C add another 4%. Total option volume is 4 times the average with 77% of the activity on the call side. Advanced Micro Devices is continuing its constructive behavior with a rally of 3%. Options are 4 times as active with 74% of the volume on the put side.
Yesterday ended with the Nasdaq Composite joining the Russell 2000 in pushing through its January highs. The COMP is showing a moderate gain here which is helping to secure the breakout. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is challenging resistance.
-posted by Nick Perry
3/10/2010 12:20 PM
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Mixx Ratio Put Spread Player Singles Out SunTrust Banks, Inc.
3/10/2010 11:32 AM
permanent linkKeywords:
STI
BCS
SunTrust Banks, Inc. (STI) was singled out for a ratio put spread in today's trading, with one speculator placing a very confident bet on the stock's near-term trajectory.
Shortly after the open, a block of 15,000 puts traded on STI's April 22 strike for the bid price of $0.18, indicating they were most likely sold. Simultaneously, a block of 7,500 April 24 puts changed hands at the ask price of $0.42, suggesting they were probably purchased. In other words, the trader sold two puts for every one purchased put. With STI trading near $27 today, both of these put strikes are out of the money by a notable margin.
In opening this spread, the trader is betting that STI will fall below the $24 level prior to April expiration. However, this speculator isn't anticipating an out-and-out plunge, as evidenced by the sale of the April 22 puts. In fact, if STI falls below $22 prior to April expiration, the trader could potentially swallow some steep losses, since only half of his short puts are hedged by long puts. In other words, it's safe to say this option player is very confident in his outlook for STI.
The best-case scenario would be for STI to settle squarely at $22 upon April expiration, which would return the maximum potential profit on the purchased puts, while allowing the sold puts to expire worthless.
On the charts, STI tagged a new 52-week peak of $27.25 earlier today. The shares are up roughly 4% as we head toward midday, outpacing solid support from their 10-week and 20-week moving averages. The regional banking issue is catching a lift from buyout speculation, with a few news outlets citing STI as a potential takeover target for Barclays (BCS).
-posted by Elizabeth Harrow
3/10/2010 11:32 AM
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Mixx The Sentiment Behind Zions Bancorporation
3/10/2010 10:49 AM
permanent linkKeywords:
ZION
Zions Bancorporation (NASDAQ: ZION) seems to be the classic case of a stock surrounded by pessimism. The Schaeffer's Put/Call Open Interest Ratio (SOIR) has been rising, most analysts are on the sidelines, and short sellers have piled in. The graph below tells the story.
(Click image to see live data)
According to data collected by our Quantified Analysis department, 28% of the stock's float is sold short. Furthermore, only 7 of 26 analysts (27%) rank the stock with a buy rating and the SOIR sits nearly a yearly high.
Now, anyone who has seen Bernie Schaeffer talk about his contrarian methodology knows that the implications of sentiment are the most powerful when they run counter to the price action. In other words, a contrarian would be the most interested in skepticism when it comes amid rising prices. In that context, Zions Bancorporation is starting to get interesting. Check out the weekly chart.
Chart Courtesy of Thomson Reuters
Heading into today, shares of Zions were showing a year-to-date gain of 50% and they had risen more than 150% over the last 52 weeks. The chart above shows they are now threatening to push out of congestion that has been in place since early 2009. I find this particularly interesting as few seem to be betting on a Zions Bancorporation breakout.
-posted by Nick Perry
3/10/2010 10:49 AM
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Mixx Option Skews - Relatively Heavy Call Activity on Las Vegas Sands Corp, AirTran Holdings Inc, Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc
3/10/2010 9:23 AM
permanent linkKeywords:
LVS
AAI
SVNT
AIG
Here are the stocks that saw a bias toward call activity in the previous session.
This filtered scan is based on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) buy-to-open data. It looks for stocks where the previous day's call volume on the ISE is at least twice as great as the put volume. It then sorts the stocks based on the call volume. Since this is buy-to-open data, this can be a good source for finding stocks where optimism is emerging. Of particular interest to me would be situations where we see call activity on stocks that are still in intermediate-term downtrends. This would be a potentially cautionary sign from the contrarian perspective.
American International Group, which made today's unusual stock volume scan and was discussed in yesterday's
short interest scan, joins Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE: LVS), AirTran Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: AAI), First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR), and Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: SVNT) on the list below. I have singled out these names because they all share a commonality - heavy levels of short interested. As noted many times here, heavy levels of short interest may spur call buying for hedging purposes so you want to keep that possibility in mind when looking at the data.
Las Vegas Sands also stands out as the stock is creeping back toward the upper end of the recent range. The equity is currently testing its best levels from January. A push through that area leaves the September highs as remaining high water mark.
Companies included in today's scan results: Citigroup Inc (C), Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO), American International Group Inc (AIG), Apple Inc (AAPL), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Bank of America Corp (BAC), Intel Corp. (INTC), Commercial Metals (CMC), Sprint Nextel (S), United Parcel Service (UPS), Verizon Communications (VZ), Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS), Cemex SAB de CV (CX), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), General Electric (GE), OmniVision Technologies (OVTI), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Barrick Gold (ABX), DryShips Inc. (DRYS), Morgan Stanley (MS), AirTran Holdings Inc (AAI), First Solar, Inc. (FSLR), EMC Corp. (EMC), Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc (SVNT), Terra Industries (TRA).
-posted by Nick Perry
3/10/2010 9:23 AM
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Mixx Option Skews - Relatively Heavy Put Activity on Netflix Inc, State Street Corp, Nokia Corp
3/10/2010 9:00 AM
permanent linkKeywords:
NFLX
STT
NOK
QQQQ
Here are the stocks that saw a bias toward put activity in the previous session.
This filtered scan is based on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) buy-to-open data. It looks for stocks where the previous day's put volume on the ISE is at least twice as great as the call volume. It then sorts the stocks based on the put volume. Since this is buy-to-open data, this can be a good source for finding stocks where skepticism is emerging. Of particular interest to me would be situations where we see put activity on stocks that are still in intermediate-term uptrends. This would be a potentially encouraging sign from the contrarian perspective.
Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) ticked to another new high yesterday. As noted last week, there seems to be widespread skepticism on the stock, which is an encouraging sign to contrarians.
State Street Corporation (NYSE: STT) has been in a sideways consolidation since the end of December. A breakout attempt at the end of last month quickly reversed but the shares have held near the upper end of the range. Watch for a potential push through 47.
Nokia Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: NOK) has also been range bound, but for a longer time. The equity has been bouncing between 16.50 and 12 for the last year. In a situation like this, I would wait for a breakout to confirm that buying demand is really coming back in.
Companies included in today's scan results: PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ), Goldcorp Incorporated (GG), GT Solar International Inc (SOLR), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), SunTrust Banks (STI), Vimpel Communications (VIP), ICICI Bank (IBN), Netflix Inc (NFLX), Prudential Financial (PRU), Xilinx (XLNX), Aruba Networks, Inc. (ARUN), Boston Scientific (BSX), Best Buy Co. (BBY), EOG Resources (EOG), Digital River (DRIV), State Street (STT), Lennar Corp. (LEN), ITT Educational Services (ESI), Home Depot (HD), Nokia Corp. (NOK), Annaly Mortgage Management (NLY), Sara Lee (SLE), Whole Foods Market (WFMI), Corning Incorporated (GLW), Caterpillar (CAT).
-posted by Nick Perry
3/10/2010 9:00 AM
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Mixx Stocks Advancing Amid Heavy Short Interest - Netlist Inc, YRC Worldwide Inc, Clearwire Corp, Alkermes Inc
3/10/2010 8:29 AM
permanent linkKeywords:
NLST
YRCW
CLWR
ALKS
As explained in our education section, short interest is a useful sentiment indicator that measures the level of investor pessimism toward a stock. While it isn't always a simple "long only" indicator, it can give you insight into situations where you might see concentrated buying demand. The purpose of this post is to highlight heavily-shorted stocks that could be in the midst of a potential short covering rally. More details about the methodology are listed below.
Last week we saw that Netlist, Inc. (NASDAQ: NLST) had broken the pattern of lower highs. The recent price action has been generally positive and a short-term uptrend is in place off the early-February bottom.
As noted last month, YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) is one of the heavily-shorted equities that has yet to recover. The stock still appears to be rebounding from the low and oversold condition hit in mid-February but I wouldn't call this an uptrending situation.
Clearwire Corporation (NASDAQ: CLWR) is in an intermediate-term trading range but the shares are trying to overtake short-term resistance from their January highs.
Alkermes, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALKS) appeared on the list of stocks seeing unusual option volume yesterday afternoon with a bias toward calls. The equity has been moving steadily higher since November and hit a new annual high yesterday. The positive price action could spur covering and call buys for hedging short positions.
Methodology - the query scans my database of companies which has some basic filters to eliminate stocks that don't trade frequently. The table above is a filtered list of stocks that have at least 10 percent of their float sold short and showed a gain in the previous trading day. I use this as a tool for finding situations where stocks with heavy short interest have begun to move.
Companies included in today's scan are: American International Group Inc (AIG), Netlist, Inc. (NLST), Brunswick (BC), AirTran Holdings Inc (AAI), Zale Corp. (ZLC), Freddie Mac (FRE), Aruba Networks, Inc. (ARUN), CompuCredit (CCRT), Ambac Financial Group (ABK), XenoPort, Inc. (XNPT), YRC Worldwide Inc (YRCW), Fannie Mae (FNM), Astec Industries (ASTE), Rosetta Stone Inc (RST), Incyte Corp. (INCY), Pacific Capital Bancorp (PCBC), Texas Industries (TXI), Continental Airlines (CAL), Ascent Solar Technologies Inc (ASTI), MBIA Inc (MBI), Clearwire Corporation (CLWR), Buckle (BKE), Sangamo Biosciences Inc (SGMO), C&D Technologies (CHP), Alkermes (ALKS).
Like this post?
If so, you can get it delivered to your inbox every day. To try it, simply click here and sign in with your Schaeffer's username and password. If you don't have a free membership, you can create one in just seconds. Once on the alerts page, select "phrase" from the first drop down box, select "intraday", and enter "Stocks Advancing Amid Heavy Short Interest" into the third box. You can repeat that process for other regular posts or change the setting to "author" and enter "Nick Perry" to get all the posts. Just remember, I make multiple posts a day so you will get numerous emails if you select intraday...
-posted by Nick Perry
3/10/2010 8:29 AM
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Mixx Stocks Showing Unusually Heavy Volume - Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Citigroup Inc, American International Group Inc
3/10/2010 8:02 AM
permanent linkKeywords:
FNM
FRE
C
AIG
Here are the results for today's unusual stock volume scan. The scan looks at the previous day's volume and compares it to the recent average volume. It then sorts the stocks based on those that showed the biggest increase (the "unusual" part) in volume.
Companies included in today's scan are: Comerica Incorporated (CMA), Netlist, Inc. (NLST), Travelzoo Inc (TZOO), Fannie Mae (FNM), Cost Plus (CPWM), First Marblehead (FMD), C&D Technologies (CHP), Freddie Mac (FRE), Denbury Resources (Holding) (DNR), Mediacom Communications (MCCC), Thor Industries (THO), Clearwire Corporation (CLWR), Alkermes (ALKS), Susquehanna Bancshares (SUSQ), Maguire Properties Inc (MPG), Achillion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ACHN), Hoku Scientific, Inc. (HOKU), Citigroup Inc (C), Skechers USA Inc (SKX), American International Group Inc (AIG), Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO), Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK), EPIX Pharmaceuticals (EPIX), Sohu.com (SOHU), CIENA Corp. (CIEN).
These are the top stocks from today's scan, which has some basic filters to eliminate stocks that don't trade frequently. A description of the column headings is below.
- Move Previous Day - yesterday's percent return.
- Volume Increase - looks at the previous day's volume and compares it to the recent average volume. It then sorts the stocks based on those that showed the biggest increase (the "unusual" part) in volume.
- Close - yesterday's closing price.
- Total Ratings - number of analysts who track the stock, according to Zacks.
- Buy Percent - percent of the analysts who rate the stock as a "buy". I use this to help gauge sentiment and potential buying demand. If everyone already loves a stock, that means a steady stream of new money will need to enter the stock to fuel a rally.
Note - sentiment data is current as of the previous trading day...
-posted by Nick Perry
3/10/2010 8:02 AM
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Mixx Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average Suggest a Flat Open
Daily Wrap-up - A 12-Point Gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average
3/9/2010 4:42 PM
permanent linkKeywords:
DJIA
SPX
The day ends with some afternoon weakness dragging the indexes off their midday highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up as much as 60 points but closed with a gain of just 12 points. The S&P 500 (SPX) was also close to flat. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) and Russell 2000 (RUT) held minor gains.
Chart Courtesy of Thomson Reuters
| Index |
Index Value |
Point Change |
Percent Change |
| S&P 500 (SPX) |
1140.5 |
2.0 points |
0.17 percent |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) |
10564.4 |
11.9 points |
0.11 percent |
| Nasdaq Composite (COMP) |
2340.7 |
8.5 points |
0.36 percent |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) |
669.6 |
2.5 points |
0.38 percent |
| CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) |
17.92 |
0.13 points |
0.7 percent |
The sector action ended mixed. The Dow Jones Transport Index (.TRAN), CBOE Internet Index (INX), and Amex Networking Index (NWX) led while the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI), US Oil Fund (USO), and S&P Retail Index (RLX) lagged.
My midday post noted that the Nasdaq Composite was pushing above former resistance. That COMP managed to hold the breakout into the close.
Charts Courtesy of Thomson Reuters
The COMP and RUT are each above their January highs while the DJIA and SPX are still below. All of the charts show overbought readings. Heading into tomorrow I will be watching whether the Nasdaq Composite holds its breakout and whether the S&P 500 can push through resistance. And that is where I will pick up in the morning. Have a nice evening.
-posted by Nick Perry
3/9/2010 4:42 PM
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Mixx Rally Sparks Call Buying on Ambac Financial Group, Inc.
3/9/2010 2:59 PM
permanent linkKeywords:
ABK
Call players have set their sights on Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (ABK) today, with more than 2,000 of these optimistically oriented contracts changing hands so far. By contrast, ABK was expected to see just about 350 calls cross the tape today -- approximately one-sixth of its actual call volume.
The center of attention today is ABK's April 1 call, where 1,246 contracts have traded at last check. About 92% of these calls have changed hands at the ask price, indicating a bias toward buying activity. With just 439 contracts currently in residence at the April 1 strike, it's safe to say that most of today's call volume will translate to new open interest tomorrow.
With ABK trading near 75 cents per share at last check, these calls are out of the money. However, today's call speculators aren't necessarily betting on a short-term bounce from ABK -- the stock is up roughly 3% this afternoon, and a hefty 19% of ABK's float has been sold short. In other words, there's no shortage of bears who might be looking to hedge their bets against a continued rally.
However, it's probably too soon for pessimistic players to abandon hope entirely. ABK's gains today have been capped by its 20-week moving average, which hasn't been toppled on a weekly closing basis since October 2009.
-posted by Elizabeth Harrow
3/9/2010 2:59 PM
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Mixx Midday Market Check - The Dow Jones Industrial Average Gain 55 Points
3/9/2010 1:28 PM
permanent linkKeywords:
DJIA
SPX
CMC
QLGC
We head into the second half of the session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) up 55 points and sitting near its highs. The S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq Composite (COMP), and Russell 2000 (RUT) are also showing moderate gains. After very mild weakness at the open, buyers have been steadily stepping in and lifting the market. The COMP and RUT are both trading at new annual highs.
Chart Courtesy of Thomson Reuters
The sector action shows widespread, but mostly mild, buying. Today's strongest groups are the Dow Jones Transport Index (.TRAN) and Amex Networking Index (NWX). The iShares Treasury Bond (TLT) is the weakest area but the loss is small.
QLogic Corporation (NASDAQ: QLGC) and Commercial Metals Company
(NYSE: CMC) are among the stocks seeing unusual option volume so far today.
Click image to see live data from
WhatsTrading.com in our Options Center
QLogic and Commercial Metals are both seeing heavy call action. Shares of QLGC are up 2% while shares of CMC are up 7%. There seems to be M&A rumors floating on both companies.
We ended the action yesterday with the Russell 2000 trading above former resistance and the Nasdaq Composite flirting with a breakout. As noted above, the COMP has now joined the RUT.
Charts Courtesy of Thomson Reuters
Barring an afternoon reversal, the SPX is the next to test its January highs...
-posted by Nick Perry
3/9/2010 1:28 PM
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Mixx Traders Add New Front-Month Puts on Huntington Bancshares Incorporated
3/9/2010 11:28 AM
permanent linkKeywords:
HBAN
Put volume has skyrocketed today on Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (HBAN), with more than 4,200 of these bearishly oriented options crossing the tape. This represents roughly 28 times the stock's expected daily put volume of about 150 contracts.
Most of this activity is centered around HBAN's March 6 put, where 4,000 contracts have changed hands so far. Nearly 90% of these contracts have traded at the ask price, suggesting a bias toward buying activity. With open interest at this strike currently totaling just 40 contracts, it's a safe bet that nearly all of today's volume consists of newly opened March 6 puts.
HBAN is no stranger to skeptically skewed speculation, though. The stock's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE) put/call volume ratio of 0.32 ranks in the 68th annual percentile, suggesting that traders have purchased puts over calls at a faster pace than usual in recent weeks.
And, in the same bearish vein, short interest accounts for more than 7% of the stock's available float. This supply of shorted shares surged by 37% during the most recent reporting period.
On the charts, HBAN is currently trading just shy of $5 -- placing those popular March 6 puts in the money by a slim margin. The stock is resting comfortably above support from both its 10-day and 10-week moving averages, but the $5 level is proving to be a tough technical hurdle. This region has kept a tight lid on HBAN's progress since May 2009.
-posted by Elizabeth Harrow
3/9/2010 11:28 AM
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Mixx The Sentiment Behind Skechers USA, Inc
3/9/2010 10:56 AM
permanent linkKeywords:
SKX
Skechers USA, Inc. (NYSE: SKX) is an interesting situation. We are only an hour or so into the regular session but the stock's volume is already on par with total volume from yesterday. Furthermore, the daily chart below shows buyers have been steadily chasing the equity.
Chart Courtesy of Thomson Reuters
This short-term view shows the pattern of higher lows in place since last summer. The stock peaked in January and has been consolidating the gains since then. With today's jump of 5%, shares of Skechers are in a position to breakout. Curiously though, the sentiment profile doesn't really show much in the way of optimism.
(Click image to see live data)
To be fair, this profile isn't skewed toward pessimism and there are some hints of optimism. For example, the Schaeffer's Put/Call Open Interest Ratio (SOIR) has been trending steadily lower. However, the open interest configuration chart shows near-term open interest is light. Furthermore, if you click on the open interest configuration links for March and April, you will see the biggest build up of calls is at the 30 strike, which is slightly in the money. In other words, there doesn't seem to be much speculation with the out-of-the-money calls.
The majority of analysts do rate Skechers with a buy rating, but only 5 analysts cover the stock. Fellow footwear firm Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NASDAQ: DECK) is followed by 13 analysts so there might be room for coverage to grow.
All in all, the optimism shown seems tame when you consider this is a stock that rallied more than 470% over that last 52 weeks.
-posted by Nick Perry
3/9/2010 10:56 AM
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Mixx Option Skews - Relatively Heavy Call Activity on Citigroup Inc, Cisco Systems Inc, Visa Inc
3/9/2010 9:01 AM
permanent linkKeywords:
C
CSCO
V
DRYS
Here are the stocks that saw a bias toward call activity in the previous session.
This filtered scan is based on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) buy-to-open data. It looks for stocks where the previous day's call volume on the ISE is at least twice as great as the put volume. It then sorts the stocks based on the call volume. Since this is buy-to-open data, this can be a good source for finding stocks where optimism is emerging. Of particular interest to me would be situations where we see call activity on stocks that are still in intermediate-term downtrends. This would be a potentially cautionary sign from the contrarian perspective.
As mentioned below, put activity was lighter than normal but the call activity seems routine. Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) tops today lists, which is a fairly regular occurrence. However, what stands out is that the equity is testing the upper boundary of the recent trading range. Last week I touched on the recent shift in trend as the downtrend was broken. A push above resistance near 3.70 would break congestion and mark a further evolution.
The constructive price action from Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) has morphed into outright strength. The equity gained over 3% yesterday as it broke out to a new annual high.
Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) also pushed to a new high yesterday. This breaks the
short-term term consolidation and continues the intermediate-term uptrend.
Companies included in today's scan results: Citigroup Inc (C), Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO), DryShips Inc. (DRYS), Research in Motion Limited (RIMM), McDonald's (MCD), EMC Corp. (EMC), Bank of America Corp (BAC), Palm Inc (PALM), Visa Inc. (V), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Morgan Stanley (MS), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC), Intel Corp. (INTC), Biogen Idec Inc (BIIB), AES Corp. (AES), MetLife (MET), Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN), EXCO Resources, Inc. (XCO), Airgas (ARG), Alkermes (ALKS), Annaly Mortgage Management (NLY), Kroger (KR), Halliburton (HAL), Pfizer (PFE), Energy Conversion Devices, Inc (ENER).
-posted by Nick Perry
3/9/2010 9:01 AM
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Mixx Option Skews - Relatively Heavy Put Activity on Sprint Nextel Corp, XenoPort Inc, Best Buy Co Inc, Akamai Technologies Inc
3/9/2010 8:41 AM
permanent linkKeywords:
S
XNPT
BBY
AKAM
Here are the stocks that saw a bias toward put activity in the previous session.
This filtered scan is based on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) buy-to-open data. It looks for stocks where the previous day's put volume on the ISE is at least twice as great as the call volume. It then sorts the stocks based on the put volume. Since this is buy-to-open data, this can be a good source for finding stocks where skepticism is emerging. Of particular interest to me would be situations where we see put activity on stocks that are still in intermediate-term uptrends. This would be a potentially encouraging sign from the contrarian perspective.
Regular readers will quickly notice that the table below is shorter than normal. The call skews scan, which will be published shortly, shows relatively normal activity so it would seem that puts just weren't as in demand as usual. Given yesterday's moderately subdued market action I wouldn't read too much into this single occurrence but it is worth noting should we see it continue.
Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S) was one of the exceptions to the "light" put activity. However, the stock has been drifting aimlessly so I would want to see signs of a uptrend before getting interested. XenoPort, Inc. (NASDAQ: XNPT) is another situation where the put activity doesn't seem significant from a contrarian perspective. The equity plunged lower last month and is showing a year-to-date loss of more than 50%.
Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE: BBY) is a bit more interesting. The shares are rebounding from a short-term pullback that followed an intermediate-term uptrend.
Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM) is a case of outright strength. The stock hit another new high yesterday, which continues the intermediate-term uptrend in place since November 2008.
Companies included in today's scan results: PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ), SPDR Trust Series I (SPY), Sprint Nextel (S), Best Buy Co. (BBY), XenoPort, Inc. (XNPT), Cemex SAB de CV (CX), Akamai Technologies (AKAM), Altera Corp. (ALTR), Developers Diversified Realty (DDR), Select Comfort (SCSS), SunTrust Banks (STI), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Terra Industries (TRA), Citrix Systems (CTXS), Target Corp. (TGT), Transocean (RIG), FedEx Corp. (FDX).
-posted by Nick Perry
3/9/2010 8:41 AM
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Mixx Stocks Advancing Amid Heavy Short Interest - American International Group Inc, Travelzoo Inc, Energy Conversion Devices Inc, Cell Therapeutics Inc
3/9/2010 8:18 AM
permanent linkKeywords:
AIG
TZOO
CTIC
ENER
As explained in our education section, short interest is a useful sentiment indicator that measures the level of investor pessimism toward a stock. While it isn't always a simple "long only" indicator, it can give you insight into situations where you might see concentrated buying demand. The purpose of this post is to highlight heavily-shorted stocks that could be in the midst of a potential short covering rally. More details about the methodology are listed below.
Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTIC) appeared on yesterday's short interest scan and I noted the pre-market strength. The stock tops today's list as shares of CTIC closed with a gain of 28%. If you hover over the symbol above, you will see the stock has now recouped the early-February selloff.
Online travel concern Travelzoo Inc. (NASDAQ: TZOO) was also very strong Monday. The 21% surge leaves the equity testing the resistance near 15 that marked the November peak. A push above 15.38 would put Travelzoo at a new annual high.
American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) continues its push higher. Last week I noted the resistance near 28 and the shares managed to close above that level yesterday. If the stock can hold these gains, it would break the near-term downtrend that has been in place since September.
I have often mentioned that I watch these daily scan for themes. Yesterday's scan noted the repeated appearance of names from biotech group and I still watching that. With Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER) and Fuel Systems Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSYS) making today's list, I am also keeping an eye on the alternative energy group. The unusual stock volume scan showed some fuel cell names as well as Energy Conversion Devices.
Methodology - the query scans my database of companies which has some basic filters to eliminate stocks that don't trade frequently. The table above is a filtered list of stocks that have at least 10 percent of their float sold short and showed a gain in the previous trading day. I use this as a tool for finding situations where stocks with heavy short interest have begun to move.
Companies included in today's scan are: Cell Therapeutics (CTIC), Travelzoo Inc (TZOO), Conn's (CONN), BankAtlantic Bancorp (BBX), Clearwire Corporation (CLWR), Energy Conversion Devices, Inc (ENER), Fuel Systems Solutions Inc (FSYS), Ruth's Chris Steak House, Inc. (RUTH), TBS International Limited (TBSI), Bronco Drilling Company, Inc. (BRNC), Cascade Bancorp (CACB), XenoPort, Inc. (XNPT), Overstock.com (OSTK), EnerNOC, Inc. (ENOC), Winnebago Industries (WGO), DealerTrack Holdings, Inc. (TRAK), Boyd Gaming Corp (BYD), Office Depot (ODP), J. Crew Group, Inc. (JCG), Pacific Capital Bancorp (PCBC), C&D Technologies (CHP), SL Green Realty (SLG), Hanmi Financial (HAFC), American International Group Inc (AIG), United States Steel Corp (X).
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If so, you can get it delivered to your inbox every day. To try it, simply click here and sign in with your Schaeffer's username and password. If you don't have a free membership, you can create one in just seconds. Once on the alerts page, select "phrase" from the first drop down box, select "intraday", and enter "Stocks Advancing Amid Heavy Short Interest" into the third box. You can repeat that process for other regular posts or change the setting to "author" and enter "Nick Perry" to get all the posts. Just remember, I make multiple posts a day so you will get numerous emails if you select intraday...
-posted by Nick Perry
3/9/2010 8:18 AM
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Mixx Stocks Showing Unusually Heavy Volume - Xyratex Ltd, China GrenTech Corporation Ltd, DryShips Inc, Nu Skin Enterprises Inc, Plug Power Inc
3/9/2010 7:48 AM
permanent linkKeywords:
XRTX
GRRF
DRYS
PLUG
Here are the results for today's unusual stock volume scan. The scan looks at the previous day's volume and compares it to the recent average volume. It then sorts the stocks based on those that showed the biggest increase (the "unusual" part) in volume.
Companies included in today's scan are: CRM Holdings, Ltd. (CRMH), Rosetta Genomics Ltd. (ROSG), Xyratex Ltd (XRTX), infoUSA (IUSA), Travelzoo Inc (TZOO), Ballard Power Systems (BLDP), China GrenTech Corporation Limited (GRRF), NCI Building Systems (NCS), Bronco Drilling Company, Inc. (BRNC), Maguire Properties Inc (MPG), Cost Plus (CPWM), Clearwire Corporation (CLWR), DryShips Inc. (DRYS), Nu Skin Enterprises Inc (NUS), Cell Therapeutics (CTIC), Plug Power Inc (PLUG), J. Crew Group, Inc. (JCG), CDC Corp. (CHINA), Winnebago Industries (WGO), Cepheid (CPHD), InterMune (ITMN), Energy Conversion Devices, Inc (ENER), CIENA Corp. (CIEN), Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO), Yingli Green Energy Hold Co Ltd (YGE).
These are the top stocks from today's scan, which has some basic filters to eliminate stocks that don't trade frequently. A description of the column headings is below.
- Move Previous Day - yesterday's percent return.
- Volume Increase - looks at the previous day's volume and compares it to the recent average volume. It then sorts the stocks based on those that showed the biggest increase (the "unusual" part) in volume.
- Close - yesterday's closing price.
- Total Ratings - number of analysts who track the stock, according to Zacks.
- Buy Percent - percent of the analysts who rate the stock as a "buy". I use this to help gauge sentiment and potential buying demand. If everyone already loves a stock, that means a steady stream of new money will need to enter the stock to fuel a rally.
Note - sentiment data is current as of the previous trading day...
-posted by Nick Perry
3/9/2010 7:48 AM
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Mixx Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average Suggest a 30-Point Loss
Daily Wrap-up - A 14-Point Loss for the Dow Jones Industrial Average
3/8/2010 4:50 PM
permanent linkKeywords:
DJIA
SPX
The day ends with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) showing a minor loss of 14 points. The S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq Composite (COMP), and Russell 2000 (RUT) were essentially flat as well. The day started with a very small rally but that quickly evolved into a mild loss and then the action just flat lined. The Dow traded in a low-to-high range of only 45 points.
Chart Courtesy of Thomson Reuters
| Index |
Index Value |
Point Change |
Percent Change |
| S&P 500 (SPX) |
1138.5 |
-0.2 points |
-0.02 percent |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) |
10552.5 |
-13.7 points |
-0.13 percent |
| Nasdaq Composite (COMP) |
2332.2 |
5.9 points |
0.25 percent |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) |
667.1 |
1.1 points |
0.16 percent |
| CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) |
17.79 |
0.37 points |
2.1 percent |
The midday sector action was very quiet but we see a little net movement at the close. The SPDR Homebuilders (XHB), Broker/Dealer Index (XBD), and CBOE Internet Index (INX) led while the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI) and streetTRACKS Gold (GLD) lagged.
My midday post noted that the RUT had broken above its former highs near 650 and that the COMP was flirting with a breakout of its own. A lack of significant action this afternoon left that picture unchanged.
Charts Courtesy of Thomson Reuters
As we head deeper into the week, I will be watching for the Nasdaq Composite to confirm the RUT's breakout. The large cap indexes seem to be lagging but I am not sure whether that is really a concern. I will also be keeping in mind the points Bernie raised in the two posts below -
The talk of the March 2009 bottom spurred me to check the archives from one year ago. In retrospect, I seems sorely lacking that I was only looking for a bear-market snapback rally. And that is where I will pick up in the morning. Have a nice evening.
-posted by Nick Perry
3/8/2010 4:50 PM
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Mixx Bernie Schaeffer - Long-Term Indicators on the S&P 500
3/8/2010 3:50 PM
permanent linkKeywords:
SPX
As noted below, there were some interesting thoughts about the market routed over the weekend. Pasted below is an email that Bernie Schaeffer sent to his trading team.
"The 160-month moving average held at the 2002 and 2003 bottoms, and after it held in September 2008 the break in October 2008 was devastating."
"The SPX died about 7 points shy of the 160-month in the January 2010 rally and is currently less than 25 points shy."
"Also note the 14-month historical volatility (HV) in the second pane. It peaked in 2009 at 29%, just shy of the post-1987 crash peak at 30%. It's currently at 18.74%, but is still about double its levels from a few years ago."
Chart Courtesy of Thomson Reuters
"The 14-month Relative Strength Index (RSI) is shown in the second pane below. On this basis, the market reached its most oversold level in modern history in March 2009 at 18. At its current level of 53, it is well shy of the 80 level it has hit during past overbought extremes, or the 70 level that has often signaled danger."
"These longer-term indicators were all discussed in the feature article ("Are We There Yet?") in our first issue of SENTIMENT just about a year ago."
Chart Courtesy of Thomson Reuters
-posted by Nick Perry
3/8/2010 3:50 PM
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Mixx DryShips Inc. Draws Mixed Call Speculation Amid Steep Rally
3/8/2010 3:03 PM
permanent linkKeywords:
DRYS
Call volume is heavy today on DryShips Inc. (DRYS), with activity swelling to 11 times the usual level. So far, a whopping 116,000 calls have changed hands, compared to the equity's expected call volume of just 10,000 contracts.
The day's most active strike is DRYS' March 6 call, which is right at the money at last check. This strike has seen 40,129 contracts trade on open interest of 49,376 contracts. Buyers appear to be driving the bulk of the activity at this strike, with the majority of these March 6 calls crossing the tape at the ask price.
However, not all of today's call volume is bullish in nature. Shortly after 1 p.m., three sizable blocks totaling 4,356 contracts changed hands on DRYS' March 7 call, suggesting these out-of-the-money options were most likely sold. By writing calls at this overhead strike, traders are wagering that DRYS will remain pinned below $7 through March expiration.
As a further caveat to today's spike in call volume, DRYS is heavily targeted by short sellers. Short interest on the stock swelled by nearly 41% during the past month, and these bearish bets now account for a noteworthy 11% of the equity's float. With DRYS up about 6% this afternoon amid rampant buyout rumors, short sellers might be feeling pressured to hedge their pessimistic stock positions with long calls.
From a technical perspective, today's rally has DRYS challenging resistance from its 20-week moving average. This intermediate-term trendline hasn't been surmounted on a weekly closing basis since early January.
-posted by Elizabeth Harrow
3/8/2010 3:03 PM
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Mixx Bernie Schaeffer - Defining a Bull Market
3/8/2010 1:56 PM
permanent linkKeywords:
SPX
From my perch here at Schaeffer's Investment Research, I have access to some very interesting tools and data. I am also privy to some of the exchanges between Bernie Schaeffer and our trading department where thoughts about the market are debated and developed. There were a couple of interesting discussions over the weekend that I want to pass along.
One exchange began after Ryan Detrick noted some data from Bespoke Investment Group about the length of bull markets. Bespoke looked at the behavior of the last 13 bull markets that persisted for at least one year. Of those, the average length was more than four years and the average gain exceeded 150%. Ryan's comment was this -
"We are exactly one year into the bull market and about nine months into the economic recovery."
Bernie Schaeffer then offered the following points to ponder...
"One potential flaw in the historical bull market argument is whether we can truly define the rally since March 2009 as a 'bull market.'"
"Looking at the S&P 500 (SPX) chart below from this weekend's Monday Morning Outlook, note the 160-month and 80-month moving averages just overhead. "
"The 80-month held as support for more than 20 years until it was taken out in 2002, after which the 160-month contained the 2002-2003 lows. The 160-month ultimately broke in October 2009 and this was followed by major and rapid downside."
"So if you consider these long-term moving averages to be good bull/bear market demarcation lines, we're still not back in bull territory. This may seem a strange conclusion after a 60% rally in 12 months, but if in fact we fail to take out these levels and the downtrend resumes it will look pretty smart in retrospect to have shorted what could then be referred to as a counter-trend rally in a bear market."
"Two encouraging factors come to mind that argue for these levels being taken out - the 80 and 160-month lines have not yet rolled over to the downside and the sentiment backdrop is highly skeptical and thus indicative of sideline buying power."
"Also, I would say the 160-month is far more significant than the 80-month, given the number of times the latter has been penetrated this decade. So I'd suggest that once the 160-month is taken out, the next major level will be 1332 – double the March 2009 intraday low. I also find it interesting that the high for the counter-trend bounce that ended in Aug 2008 was 1313. So perhaps 1300-1350 would be the resistance area."
As I said above, this was only part of the weekend discussions. Look for more to come...
-posted by Nick Perry
3/8/2010 1:56 PM
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Mixx Midday Market Check - The Dow Jones Industrial Average Drops 17 Points
3/8/2010 1:01 PM
permanent linkKeywords:
DJIA
PARD
BIIB
DRYS
We head into the second half of the session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) near its lows of the day. However, that only leaves the blue chip average at a tame loss of 17 points. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Russell 2000 (RUT) are flat while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) shows a small gain. As the chart below shows, the day started with a meager rally and the market has been slowly sliding since then.
Chart Courtesy of Thomson Reuters
The sector action is mixed but quiet. Today's strongest groups are the Broker/Dealer Index (XBD) and SPDR Homebuilders (XHB) but gains are still relatively mild. The Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI), streetTRACKS Gold (GLD), and US Oil Fund (USO) are the weakest areas, but also with muted moves. None of the sectors on my list are moving more than 1%.
Poniard Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: PARD), Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) and DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) are among the stocks seeing unusual option volume so far today.
Click image to see live data from
WhatsTrading.com in our Options Center
Poniard Pharmaceuticals tops the list with total option volume that is running 20 times the average. The bulk of the action (98%) is on the put side as the stock drops 9%. Biogen Idec ticked to a new annual high this morning. Options are 7 times as active with call volume dominating. Shares of DryShips are also seeing call volume. The stock showed some early strength but that appeared to be waning until the surge of buying that just pushed the shares to a 5% gain. This looks to be an interesting situation.
When I left the action on Thursday, the market was showing some momentum but the monthly employment report was looming. A quick glance at our daily Market Recap column shows the report did little to dissuade the bulls. Here are the updated daily charts.
Charts Courtesy of Thomson Reuters
The Dow, which had been the laggard in terms of overtaking near-term congestion, has finally joined the other indexes. Furthermore, the RUT has now decisively broken above its former highs near 650 and the COMP is flirting with a breakout of its own. The indexes are now pushing into overbought territory but we seem to have some leadership from small caps and an overall willingness to buy into strength.
-posted by Nick Perry
3/8/2010 1:01 PM
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Mixx Put Players Place Pre-Earnings Bets on J. Crew Group, Inc.
3/8/2010 11:23 AM
permanent linkKeywords:
JCG
Option volume has surged way beyond the normal levels today on J. Crew Group, Inc. (JCG), with traders paying particular attention to puts on the apparel issue. So far, 4,511 of these bearishly oriented options have changed hands, compared to JCG's expected daily put volume of just 166 contracts.
The most active strike is JCG's March 45 put, where more than 3,000 contracts have crossed the tape. With just 1,099 contracts in residence at this out-of-the-money strike, we can safely assume that most of today's volume consists of newly opened positions. The majority of these calls have traded at the ask price, suggesting a bias toward buying activity, and implied volatility on this option is up 6.2% at last check.
However, some of the volume at this strike is linked to a directionally neutral strangle strategy. Shortly after the open, a trader initiated a long strangle by purchasing 100 March 45 puts and 100 March 50 calls. For this spread to become profitable, the shares of JCG need to stage a significant rally beyond the purchased call strike, or endure a sharp plunge below the purchased put strike.
Today's uptick in option volume is most likely related to JCG's upcoming fourth-quarter earnings report, which is due to hit the Street after the market closes on Tuesday, March 9. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are expecting a per-share profit of 46 cents, significantly better than the company's year-ago loss of 22 cents per share. The First Lady's favorite retailer has a solid history in the earnings confessional, having exceeded consensus expectations in each of the previous four reporting periods.
From a technical perspective, JCG gapped above short-term resistance at the $46 level earlier today, and tapped a fresh 52-week peak of $47.18. The equity is now hovering well above support at its 10-day and 20-day moving averages.
-posted by Elizabeth Harrow
3/8/2010 11:23 AM
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Mixx Option Skews - Relatively Heavy Call Activity on Apple Inc and Google Inc
3/8/2010 10:28 AM
permanent linkKeywords:
AAPL
GOOG
C
INTC
Here are the stocks that saw a bias toward call activity in the previous session.
This filtered scan is based on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) buy-to-open data. It looks for stocks where the previous day's call volume on the ISE is at least twice as great as the put volume. It then sorts the stocks based on the call volume. Since this is buy-to-open data, this can be a good source for finding stocks where optimism is emerging. Of particular interest to me would be situations where we see call activity on stocks that are still in intermediate-term downtrends. This would be a potentially cautionary sign from the contrarian perspective.
I have been watching Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) as a barometer of buying. This is one of the premier bellwether stocks so I am keeping an eye on it to gauge whether buyers still have an appetite for stocks. Another equity that fits this leadership role is Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL). Both companies appear on the table below amid a bias toward calls.
As noted in the intro paragraph above, my primary concern would be when we see call buying amid a downtrend. In other words, the strongest contrarian signals come when the sentiment runs counter to the price action.
Shares of GOOG hit a new annual high back in January and they are holding a gain of more than 80% over the last 52 weeks. Shares of APPL have rallied more than 150% over the last year and they jumped to an annual high on Friday. I wouldn't consider either stock to be in an intermediate-term downtrend so the contrarian implications of call activity would be diminished.
For those interested, more on this concept can be found in Elizabeth Harrow's article on Expectational Analysis in the most recent issue of SENTIMENT magazine.
Companies included in today's scan results: Citigroup Inc (C), Apple Inc (AAPL), Google Inc (GOOG), UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH), Intel Corp. (INTC), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC), eBay Inc (EBAY), CF Industries Holdings (CF), Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO), Bank of America Corp (BAC), Halliburton (HAL), AK Steel Holding Corp (AKS), WellPoint Health Networks (WLP), Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN), AT&T Corp. (T), General Electric (GE), EMC Corp. (EMC), Boston Scientific (BSX), Visa Inc. (V), McMoRan Exploration (MMR), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Boeing (BA), Annaly Mortgage Management (NLY), Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS), Massey Energy (MEE).
-posted by Nick Perry
3/8/2010 10:28 AM
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Mixx Option Skews - Relatively Heavy Put Activity on Qualcomm Inc, GameStop Corp, Advanced Micro Devices Inc, Whole Foods Market Inc
3/8/2010 9:47 AM
permanent linkKeywords:
QCOM
GME
AMD
WFMI
Here are the stocks that saw a bias toward put activity in the previous session.
This filtered scan is based on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) buy-to-open data. It looks for stocks where the previous day's put volume on the ISE is at least twice as great as the call volume. It then sorts the stocks based on the put volume. Since this is buy-to-open data, this can be a good source for finding stocks where skepticism is emerging. Of particular interest to me would be situations where we see put activity on stocks that are still in intermediate-term uptrends. This would be a potentially encouraging sign from the contrarian perspective.
Qualcomm, Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) and GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) were both discussed last week. Qualcomm appeared on Tuesday's call skews scan while GameStop showed up on Thursday's call skews scan. The commonality here is that both had seen a call bias amid general price weakness. Given the lackluster action and recently call activity, I would not view an uptick in skepticism as being a significant contrarian sign.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE: AMD) continues to rebound after pulling back to support. The shares are near a short-term overbought condition but the overall behavior looks constructive.
Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: WFMI) recently gapped higher and then pushed through resistance near 34. The equity is overextended but that former resistance should now be viewed as support.
Companies included in today's scan results: PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ), CIENA Corp. (CIEN), Sprint Nextel (S), Valero Energy (VLO), Best Buy Co. (BBY), Qualcomm Inc (QCOM), Weatherford International (WFT), Transatlantic (TRH), Terra Industries (TRA), Frontline. (FRO), Walgreen (WAG), Peabody Energy (BTU), Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE), Textron (TXT), Louisiana-Pacific (LPX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Kraft Foods (KFT), State Street (STT), Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD), Western Digital (WDC), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Caterpillar (CAT), Gamestop Corp (GME), Reynolds American (RAI), Whole Foods Market (WFMI).
-posted by Nick Perry
3/8/2010 9:47 AM
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Mixx Stocks Advancing Amid Heavy Short Interest - InterMune Inc, Molecular Insight Pharmaceuticals Inc, Cell Therapeutics Inc, Ciena Corp
3/8/2010 8:12 AM
permanent linkKeywords:
ITMN
CIEN
CTIC
MIPI
As explained in our education section, short interest is a useful sentiment indicator that measures the level of investor pessimism toward a stock. While it isn't always a simple "long only" indicator, it can give you insight into situations where you might see concentrated buying demand. The purpose of this post is to highlight heavily-shorted stocks that could be in the midst of a potential short covering rally. More details about the methodology are listed below.
InterMune, Inc. (NASDAQ: ITMN) appeared on both last Wednesday's unusual stock volume scan and the scan today. The company also was mentioned in a short interest scan last week and tops the table below. In other words, the stock has been seeing some interest and this culminated in Friday's 59% surge. According to data collected by our Quantified Analysis department, 14% of the stock's float is sold short. Friday's rally allowed the stock to break the trading range in place since late 2007. Molecular Insight Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: MIPI) was mentioned the same short interest scan last week that talked about generalized buying in the biotech group.
Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTIC), another name from the biotech sector, is trying to recoup an early-February selloff. The shares posted a 13% gain Friday and are currently bid up 16% in pre-market activity.
I noted a pullback in Ciena Corporation (NASDAQ: CIEN) last Thursday and said the dip would only retrace a portion of the recent rally. Bulls came out in force the next day and allowed the equity to recoup that drop and then some.
Methodology - the query scans my database of companies which has some basic filters to eliminate stocks that don't trade frequently. The table above is a filtered list of stocks that have at least 10 percent of their float sold short and showed a gain in the previous trading day. I use this as a tool for finding situations where stocks with heavy short interest have begun to move.
Companies included in today's scan are: InterMune (ITMN), Molecular Insight Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MIPI), CIENA Corp. (CIEN), Zale Corp. (ZLC), Cell Therapeutics (CTIC), Conn's (CONN), James River Coal Co (JRCC), Banner Corp. (BANR), Coldwater Creek (CWTR), PMI Group (PMI), Diamond Foods, Inc. (DMND), Hanmi Financial (HAFC), Boston Private Financial (BPFH), Sonic Solutions (SNIC), CompuCredit (CCRT), Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ), Brunswick (BC), Mobile Mini (MINI), Winnebago Industries (WGO), TiVo Inc (TIVO), JAKKS Pacific (JAKK), Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN), United Bankshares (UBSI), Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. (BBW), CBL & Associates Properties (CBL).
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-posted by Nick Perry
3/8/2010 8:12 AM
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Mixx Stocks Showing Unusually Heavy Volume - Neurocrine Biosciences Inc, Dynamic Materials Corp, Emergent BioSolutions Inc, Wabash National Corp, optionsXpress Holdings Inc
3/8/2010 7:47 AM
permanent linkKeywords:
NBIX
BOOM
EBS
WNC
Here are the results for today's unusual stock volume scan. The scan looks at the previous day's volume and compares it to the recent average volume. It then sorts the stocks based on those that showed the biggest increase (the "unusual" part) in volume.
Companies included in today's scan are: Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX), InterMune Inc (ITMN), Dynamic Materials Corp (BOOM), Diamond Foods, Inc. (DMND), Conexant Systems (CNXT), Fuji Photo Film Co. (FUJIY), Kingsway Financial Services (KFS), Mine Safety Appliances (MSA), Standard Motor Products (SMP), TiVo Inc (TIVO), Entravision Communications (EVC), Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG), Coldwater Creek (CWTR), Transatlantic (TRH), FelCor Lodging Trust Incorporated (FCH), Molecular Insight Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MIPI), Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS), Progress Software (PRGS), CIENA Corp. (CIEN), Polypore International, Inc. (PPO), Wabash National Corp (WNC), optionsXpress Holdings Inc (OXPS), Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (JAZZ), Solarfun Power Holdings Co Ltd (SOLF), Marvell Technology Group (MRVL).
These are the top stocks from today's scan, which has some basic filters to eliminate stocks that don't trade frequently. A description of the column headings is below.
- Move Previous Day - yesterday's percent return.
- Volume Increase - looks at the previous day's volume and compares it to the recent average volume. It then sorts the stocks based on those that showed the biggest increase (the "unusual" part) in volume.
- Close - yesterday's closing price.
- Total Ratings - number of analysts who track the stock, according to Zacks.
- Buy Percent - percent of the analysts who rate the stock as a "buy". I use this to help gauge sentiment and potential buying demand. If everyone already loves a stock, that means a steady stream of new money will need to enter the stock to fuel a rally.
Note - sentiment data is current as of the previous trading day...
-posted by Nick Perry
3/8/2010 7:47 AM
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Mixx Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average Suggest a Flat Open