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Pre-Earnings Pessimists Hop on Molson Coors Brewing Company

Author
Andrea Kramer (akramer@sir-inc.com)

7/30/2010 12:23:52 PM

Beer behemoth Molson Coors Brewing Company (TAP) will chug into the earnings spotlight on Tuesday, Aug. 3. Ahead of the event, it appears the options crowd is somewhat wary of the stock, with bearish bets being added at an accelerated pace lately.

During the past two weeks, speculators on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) have shown a distinct preference for long puts over calls, as indicated by TAP's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 2.22. What's more, this ratio ranks in the 91st percentile of its annual range, implying that traders on the ISE have bought to open puts over calls at a faster clip only 9% of the time during the past year.

Meanwhile, a plethora of options players on Thursday opted for the pessimistic road less traveled. By the closing bell, TAP had seen nearly 2,300 August 45 calls cross the tape – about eight times its expected daily call activity at any strike. However, 88% of the calls traded at the bid price, and call open interest at the at-the-money strike swelled by almost 2,000 contracts overnight, pointing to sell-to-open activity.

By writing the August 45 calls to open, the sellers are betting the shares of TAP will finish south of the $45 level by the time front-month options expire. In this best-case scenario, the calls will expire without value, allowing the traders to retain the entire credit received at initiation – the most they can possibly gain on the play.

Around midday, the shares of TAP have added 0.2% to hover just shy of the $45 level.

 
Commentary by WhatsTrading.com
 
JA Solar Holdings Company Ltd (JASO) $7.09 +9.41%
9/8/2010 10:19:49 AM

JA Solar (JASO) gapped at the open and is up 66 cents to $7.14 after the company announced new supply deals totaling 500 megawatts. Shares touched a new 52-week high and options volume is 2.5X the average daily, with 4,700 calls and 315 puts traded in the Chinese solar cell maker so far. Sep 7.5, Oct 7 and Dec 7 calls are the most actives.

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Corning Inc (GLW) $16.84 +0.18%
9/7/2010 3:19:51 PM

Corning (GLW) adds 9 cents to $16.90 and the Feb 15 - 19 strangle is bought at $1.82, 3600X on AMEX. Looks like an opening volatility play on the glass maker. Meanwhile, other investors are focused on the Sep 17 puts, with 8,550 traded vs. 5,823 in open interest. The top trade is 2937 at 52 cents on ISE, when bid-ask was 51 to 53 cents. It's not clear if it was buyer or seller initiated, but implied volatility is up 5 percent to 35.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Oracle Corp (ORCL) $24.26 +5.85%
9/7/2010 2:19:51 PM

Oracle (ORCL) is seeing relative strength and increasing options activity on news Mark Hurd, a former H-P CEO, has joined the software maker as President and member of Board of Directors. Goldman also added ORCL to its Conviction Buy List today. Shares are up $1.34 to $24.26 and options volume is running 2X the average daily, with about 44K contracts traded (through 12:30 ET.) Sep 25 calls and Sep 24 puts are the most actives. 27K calls and 17K puts traded total. Implied volatility is up about 8 percent to 34.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Netflix Inc (NFLX) $141.28 +2.02%
9/7/2010 1:19:51 PM

Netflix is up $2.80 to $141.28, a new 52-week high and option activity is 2x the daily average. Some 20,000 calls to 11,000 put have traded. And within that activity the trade is two way and looks to be more about risk reduction as spreads are accounting for the bulk of the volume in what looks like a roll; September $140/$145 calls have traded 3,300 contracts in what looks opening or possibly a roll up in strikes, while the October $145/$150 call spread has 2,100 at each strike in what looks like opening transactions. Also looks like someone is using the weekly options to create a calendar spread of selling the $140 weekly and buying the Sep $145 call for a $2.00 net debit 1,500 times.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) $23.69 +11.17%
9/7/2010 11:19:54 AM

CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) is up 2.33 to 23.64 and moving to session highs, as the S&P 500 falls 10 points and heads towards morning lows. There doesn't seem to be a specific catalyst for the market slide over the past 10 minutes, but note that the financials - AXP, BAC, and JPM - are the biggest percentage losers in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Shares of many financials are following European banks and the euro lower in morning trading Tuesday on renewed worries about the health of European banks. Energy-related names are also under pressure after crude oil lost $1.06 to $73.54 a barrel.

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CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) $21.90 -5.56%
9/3/2010 3:20:00 PM

The top options trades so far today are in the CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) after the Sep - Oct 25 put spread trades at 45 cents, 58000X. The same spread traded yesterday and the action looks like rolling from one month to the next. Open interest in the Oct 25 puts increased by 54,880 to 129,900 following yesterday action and if today's block of 58K adds to it, then the increasing interest is likely to make the contract the second biggest position in the VIX; behind the Sep 25 puts, which have 289K of open interest. VIX is down 1.33 to 21.86 today and has now suffered a four-day slide of about 20 percent. The large blocks of puts on the VIX might be hedges of VIX futures.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Sprint Nextel Corporation (S) $4.39 +1.15%
9/3/2010 2:00:02 PM

Sprint Nextel (S) shares are up a nickel to $4.39 and have now added 12.5 percent since Monday. Some players might be worried that the gains won't last, as a block of 20K Sep 4 puts recently traded at the 4-cent ask price. It might be a closing trade. Meanwhile, 8,000 Jan 4 puts also changed hands, including 4000 at the 38-cent ask and 4,000 at 37 cents. The Jan 4 puts look opening and marked "tied", so possibly a protective put or volatility play. Implied volatility in Sprint is down 4 percent to 48.5 today, compared to a 52-week high and low of 87 and 46.5.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Urban Outfitters (URBN) $32.98 +1.23%
9/3/2010 12:00:01 PM

Urban Outfitters (URBN) adds 42 cents to $33 and options volume is 3X the average daily, led by a Sep 33 - 34 call spread, 3300X on ISE. Looks like it was sold at 45 cents and is possibly rolling up in strikes after a three-day 8.7 percent gain in the share price. URBN saw relative strength and was one of the best gainers in the NASDAQ 100 yesterday. The company is due to present at a Goldman Sachs Retailing Conference on 9/14.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Ford Motor Company (F) $11.95 +2.04%
9/3/2010 11:00:00 AM

Ford Motor (F) adds 24 cents to $11.96, now up 5.7 percent month-to-date, after reporting an 11 percent decline in August sales on Sep 1. Options action is picking up today, with 25K calls and 9,930 puts traded on the automaker, or two times the typical volume for the first hour of trading. Early trades included blocks of Sep 14 calls at 7 cents on ISE, where sentiment data hints at opening customer buy orders. 10,775 contracts now traded.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT) $23.90 +0.00%
9/2/2010 4:00:06 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) is flat at $23.91 and recent trades include an Oct 25 - 27 call spread at 32 cents, 5000X on CBOE. Looks like a buyer initiating the trade and the spread has been repeated multiple times. Now volume in both contracts exceeds 9000. Another noteworthy trade in Microsoft today is a block of 9555 Jan 27.5 calls at the 44-cent ask price in afternoon trading. This morning, about 30 minutes after the bell, a block of 5,720 Jan 24 calls was bought to open at $1.60 on ISE, according to ISEE data. 81,000 call options now traded on the software giant, compared to 13,000 puts. The bullish trading comes ahead of a presentation at the Citi Global Tech Conference Tuesday at Noon ET.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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